Summary: Thierry Breton, former European Commissioner, recently spoke about the consequences of the American elections for the European Union (EU). According to him, regardless of the outcome – Joe Biden or Donald Trump – Europe must face a new reality that requires increased strategic autonomy and assertive leadership. The political polarization in the United States is worrying and could influence American support for crucial issues such as the war in Ukraine.
A Crucial Election
The 2024 American presidential election represents a potential turning point for the EU according to Thierry Breton. He emphasizes that the United States is plunged into deep internal division, exacerbated by political figures like Donald Trump. This social fracture has repercussions on transatlantic relations, as neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump seem to prioritize Europe as it once was.
Economic and Social Impacts
Despite the good health of the American economy post-Covid-19, with a persistent inflation rate mainly affecting the middle class, many Americans may continue to vote based on their immediate concerns rather than their overall economic situation. This disenfranchised electorate remains loyal to Trump’s promises regarding the reindustrialization of the country.
Breton also highlights the paradox of this election: while some economic sectors like Wall Street are beginning to accept Trump more due to his clear and articulated economic program, this acceptance could generate tensions within the very fabric of American society.
The European Future Facing a New Challenge
The former Commissioner warns that if Trump returns to power, it would likely lead to “a deadly crisis” for Europe. The threats include not only a weakening of multilateralism but also a probable increase in tariffs on European imports.
Increasingly isolated in its global strategic aspirations, Thierry Breton therefore calls on each member state to realize that a collective approach is essential to effectively respond to emerging challenges. This notably requires strengthened coordination around key technology issues as well as industrial production.
Towards Strategic Autonomy
With these challenges also come significant opportunities to strengthen cooperation among European members. If Biden maintains his position or if Harris takes over without radical changes in American priorities towards the EU after the elections, this can be seen as a favorable opportunity to forge an autonomous future based on our own industrial and technological capabilities.
The need for massive investment mentioned in various European reports then becomes crucial; it will be necessary to encourage innovative mobilization comparable to American initiatives such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
To conclude his lucid analysis on this complex dynamic between Washington and Brussels following the upcoming American presidential election: “We must prepare ourselves.”
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